Saturday, July 30, 2005

four funerals and a wedding

Talk by Damian Conway at a Monash Alumni breakfast. http://audio.monash.edu.au/alumni/conawy.mp3 (28.6 MB, 48 minutes)
Damian Conway is a futurist, Perl expert, amongst other things.

These are rough notes. Thanks to Roland for publicising this talk at his blog and on the Victorian teachers list.

The four Funerals:

1) Wires -

In Febuary 2001 the number of mobile phones in Australia became larger than the number of installed fixed land line phones. In 2005 there are roughly 13 million mobile phones compared with 7 million fixed land line phones. Todays 20 yo's will not be buying land lines when they move out of home and start living independently.

Mauritius is a wifi hot spot, the whole island

RFID, radio frequency identification, will be huge

2) Licensed software (and custom hardware) -

Growth of Linux, open source.

Software will be replaced by web services (others have written about this, Paul Graham, Joel, Tim O'Reilly)

SDR (software defined radio)

Hardware will become more generic.

A generic CPU will simulate and replace current hardware such as FM, shortwave, CB, satellite radio, TV, HDTV, GPS, GSM, CMDA, broadband, WiFi, WiMax, blue tooth, GDO (garage door opener).

Devices will be able to reconfigure on the fly to create their own networks, depending on what is available at your current location.

3) Media as we know it

floppies, VHS, CDs, DVDs are dying or will die.

They will be replaced by HVD, H for holographic, which will start with a capacity of 100 GB (equivalent of 20 DVDs) and climb to 1.3 TB (300 DVDs)

4) Anonmity

Everything you look at is known


There was other information here about how the current shortage of IP addresses would be rectified with IP version 6, which would enable over 4 billion internet addresses. Every light bulb on the planet will have an inernet address.

The Wedding -

Portable Information Media Platform
It will grow out of the existing mobile phone
Check out Nokia phone, N91

It will be cordless, VOIP, pager, fax machine, answering machine, high resolution camera, a movie camera which runs all the time, PDA, real time map, internet access (news, encycopedia, library), mp3 player, video player, games console, light switch, credit card, dating service, a model of who you are which can be broadcast to others

The future summarised -

Connectivity: anywhere, anytime
Free: hardware, software, tools
Sell: services, bandwidth, access, data

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